HORTICULTURE
HORTICULTURE
This damage estimate was prepared in July of 2000. I have not modified this original estimate. The actual losses as far as I can determine are near the low side of our original estimates. If you are interested in the spreadsheets I used to calculate 2000 losses let me know. If you wish to comment send your comments to Mark Longstroth.
2000 Fire Blight Loss Estimates
Crop Loss in 2000
Tree loss in 2000
Cummulative Losses
County Losses
My estimates of the 2000 crop loss run from 1.9 to 3 million. I get 1.9 million by subtracting the 2000 processor estimate for the 1994 to 1999 average of the guesstimate. I get the 2.7 million from estimating % yield reductions on 1997 fruit census acreages and then multiplying by state average yield. I get 3.3 million by multiplying county acreage by a 30% yield reduction or 2.6 million by estimating affected acres and assuming a 50% loss on those acres and a 100% loss for killed orchards. I have a gut feeling that we have a loss of about 2 to 2.5 million bushels.
Difference in 2000 Apple Guesstimate and 1994 to 99 Average
Variety |
1999 |
2000 |
94-99 Ave |
2000 loss |
% Loss |
| Summer Var. | 690,000 |
450,000 |
766,600 |
316,600 |
41% |
| Cortland | 40,000 |
26,000 |
57,000 |
31,000 |
54% |
| Red Del. | 650,000 |
520,000 |
825,600 |
305,600 |
37% |
| Golden Del. | 400,000 |
320,000 |
494,600 |
174,600 |
35% |
| Empire | 120,000 |
78,000 |
127,200 |
49,200 |
39% |
| Jonathan | 750,000 |
600,000 |
909,000 |
309,000 |
34% |
| McIntosh | 210,000 |
168,000 |
234,600 |
66,600 |
28% |
| Northern Spy | 60,000 |
54,000 |
68,400 |
14,400 |
21% |
| RI Greening | 83,000 |
74,000 |
88,900 |
14,900 |
17% |
| Romes | 700,000 |
595,000 |
803,400 |
208,400 |
26% |
| Winesap | 260,000 |
221,000 |
310,000 |
89,000 |
29% |
| Idared | 450,000 |
360,000 |
634,600 |
274,600 |
43% |
| Other | 192,000 |
154,000 |
128,800 |
38,000 |
30% |
| Total | 4,605,000 |
3,620,000 |
5,448,700 |
1,891,900 |
35% |
Estimate from 1997 fruit census
Accumulated five year loss of crop and income
The 2000 apple crop was expected to be off from previous years due to a heavy crop in 1999 and a severe frost in early April that probably reduced the 2000 apple crop by 20%. The part of the apple tree that was killed will not bear a crop next year. Apples bear their fruit on 2 year-old wood, so yields will not rise greatly until 3 years from now. If the tree is not killed it will probably be back to full production in 5 years. The 2000 crop was expected to by down from 1999, which was a heavy crop year. Therefore losses in 2001 would be equal to or greater than 2000, then yield should begin to rise. For older trees (7 years or more) this increase in yield should end in about 5 years.
2000 Crop Loss |
Average |
||||
Bushels |
1,891,900 |
2,580,000 |
2,692,759 |
3,078,000 |
2,560,665 |
2000 Crop Loss = |
$7,151,382 |
$9,752,400 |
$10,178,629 |
$11,634,840 |
$9,679,313 |
2001 Crop Loss = |
$6,436,244 |
$8,777,160 |
$9,160,766 |
$10,471,356 |
$8,711,381 |
2002 Crop Loss = |
$5,363,537 |
$7,314,300 |
$7,633,972 |
$8,726,130 |
$7,259,485 |
2003 Crop Loss = |
$3,575,691 |
$4,876,200 |
$5,089,314 |
$5,817,420 |
$4,839,656 |
2004 Crop Loss = |
$1,787,846 |
$2,438,100 |
$2,544,657 |
$2,908,710 |
$2,419,828 |
5-Year Total Loss = |
$24,314,699 |
$33,158,160 |
$34,607,338 |
$39,558,456 |
$32,909,663 |
Bill Shane estimated the loss of 2,300 acres a lost investment of $8,800,000.
Cumulative Development Costs and Acreages used by Bill Shane
Cumulative Development Costs |
|||||||
| 1st year | 2nd year | 3rd Year | 4th Year | 5th Year | 6th Year | ||
| Central Leader | $2,491 |
$2,890 |
$3,271 |
$3,825 |
$4,414 |
$5,118 |
|
| Vertical Axe | $7,145 |
$8,074 |
$8,850 |
$9,682 |
$9,682 |
$9,682 |
|
| Slender Spindle | $7,145 |
$8,074 |
$8,850 |
$9,682 |
$9,682 |
$9,682 |
|
| Weighted Cost* | $2,956 |
$3,408 |
$3,829 |
$4,411 |
$4,941 |
$5,574 |
|
| Acres Lost | 497 |
801 |
375 |
193 |
76 |
358 |
2,300 |
| Total Loss | $1,469,005 |
$2,728,815 |
$1,435,948 |
$852,990 |
$374,390 |
$1,995,018 |
$8,856,165 |
* The weighted cost assumes that 90% of the new plantings are Central leader, and 5% each Vertical Axe and Slender Spindle
Mark Longstroth estimates that we will lose 1,550 acres a lost investment of $9,300,000.
Cumulative Development Costs and Acreages used by Mark Longstroth
Annual Development Costs ( Until the Planting Reaches Full Production) |
|||||||||||
2000 |
1999 |
1998 |
1997 |
1996 |
1995 |
1994 |
1993 |
||||
| Preplant | First |
Second |
Third |
Fourth |
Fifth |
Sixth |
Seventh | Eighth | |||
| Central Leader | $784 |
$3,737 |
$407 |
$386 |
$559 |
$601 |
$723 |
$1,365 |
$1,420 |
||
| Vertical Axe | $784 |
$6,362 |
$927 |
$778 |
$832 |
$1,257 |
$1,442 |
||||
| Slender Spindle | $784 |
$6,362 |
$927 |
$778 |
$832 |
||||||
Cumulative Development Costs |
|||||||||||
| Preplant | First |
Second |
Third |
Fourth |
Fifth |
Sixth |
Seventh | Eighth | |||
| Central Leader | $784 |
$4,521 |
$4,928 |
$5,314 |
$5,873 |
$6,473 |
$7,196 |
$8,562 |
$9,982 |
||
| Vertical Axe | $784 |
$7,146 |
$8,073 |
$8,851 |
$9,683 |
$10,940 |
$12,381 |
||||
| Slender Spindle | $784 |
$7,146 |
$8,073 |
$8,851 |
$9,683 |
||||||
| Weighted Cost* | $784 |
$4,784 |
$5,242 |
$5,668 |
$6,254 |
$6,373 |
$7,096 |
$7,705 |
$8,984 |
||
| Acres Lost | 240 |
240 |
240 |
229 |
251 |
165 |
120 |
46 |
|||
| Total Loss | $1,147,866 |
$1,257,911 |
$1,359,914 |
$1,431,098 |
$1,599,923 |
$1,172,127 |
$920,915 |
$415,584 |
$9,305,338 |
||
Acres of Apple Orchards Lost
Apples: |
Berrien |
Van Buren |
Cass |
Allegan |
Kalamazoo |
Total |
| Total Acreage | 7,100 |
7,100 |
1,100 |
1,300 |
500 |
17,100 |
| Affected Acreage | 4,000 |
3,000 |
300 |
300 |
50 |
7,650 |
| High density plantings | 900 |
700 |
150 |
60 |
50 |
1,860 |
| - Expected loss (50%) | 450 |
300 |
75 |
30 |
25 |
880 |
| Conventional plantings | 3,100 |
2,300 |
150 |
240 |
450 |
6,240 |
| - Expected loss | 550 |
150 |
20 |
720 |
||
| Acreage loss | 950 |
450 |
75 |
50 |
25 |
1,550 |
| Trees Lost | 234,000 |
104,000 |
19,500 |
13,000 |
6,500 |
377,000 |
| *Assuming an average acre loss of 180 Bu/A (35% of 480 Bu/A Ave) | ||||||
| Lost Crop Bu.* | 1,278,000 |
1,278,000 |
198,000 |
234,000 |
90,000 |
3,078,000 |
| Lost Crop $* | $4,830,840 |
$4,830,840 |
$748,440 |
$884,520 |
$340,200 |
$11,634,840 |
| ** Assuming a loss of 50% (240 Bu/A) on affected acres and 100% (480 Bu) on lost acres | ||||||
| Lost Crop Bu.** | 1,416,000 |
936,000 |
108,000 |
96,000 |
24,000 |
2,580,000 |
| Lost Crop $** | $5,352,480 |
$3,538,080 |
$408,240 |
$362,880 |
$90,720 |
$9,752,400 |
