This is the update version of the 1999 Fireblight prediction using the MaryBlyt model for the Peach Ridge Weather Station in Sparta, Michigan.
Apple & Pear Fireblight Predictions
Philip Schwallier & Amy Brown
1999 Peach Ridge Data, Update Version, May 25, 1999
Month
Day
Bloom Stage
Ave 
Temp.
Precip.
Pear
EIP
Pear
Risk
Crab 
& Early
Season 
EIP
Crab 
& Early
Season 
Risk
Mid 
Season
EIP
 

Mid 
Season
Risk
Late 
Season
EIP
Late 
Season
Risk
Comments
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
April
30
1st Bloom, Pears
55
0
12
Low
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
May 
1
1st Bloom, Crabs, Ida
56
0
48
Low
36
Low
 
 
 
 
 
 
2
1st Bloom, Paulared, 
Braeburn
61
0
73
Mod
61
Mod
 
 
 
 
 
 
3
 Full Bloom, Pears
1st Bloom, Gingergold, 
Jonagold, Jon, Fuji
King Bloom, Ida
64
0
109
High
98
Mod
37
Mod
 
 
 
 
4
 1st Bloom, Gala, Honeycrisp
King Bloom, Paula, Braeburn
Full Bloom, Ida
67
0
158
High
146
High
85
Mod
   
 
 
5
1st Bloom, Goldens
King Bloom, Gingergold, 
Jonagold, Jon, Fuji
Full Bloom, Paula, Braeburn
68
.04
242
Infection
230
Infection
169 
Infection
84
High
1st symptoms
Predicted, 5-22
 
6
1st Bloom, Rome
Full Bloom, Gingergold, 
Jonagold, Jon, Fuji
King Bloom Gala, Honeycrisp
61
.01
255
Infection
243
Infection
182
Infection
97
High
 1st symptoms
Predicted, 5-22
 
7
King Bloom, Goldens, Rome
Full Bloom Gala, Honeycrisp
58
.01
170
High
162
High
121
High
65
Mod
 
 
8
 Petal Fall, Pears
53
.09
85
Mod
81
Mod
60
Mod
33
Mod
 
 
9
 Full Bloom, Goldens, Romes
53
0
85
Low
81
Low
60
Low
33
Low
 
 
10
 Petal Fall, Ida, Paulas
55
0
97
Low
93
Low
72
Low
47
Low
 
 
11
 Petal Fall, Braeburn, Gingergold
59
0
121
High
117
High
96
Mod
71
Mod
 
 
12
Bloom Done, Pears 
51
1.22
 81
High 
78
Mod
64
Mod
47
Mod
 
 
13
Petal Fall, Jons, Jonagold, Fuji
54
.01
 
 
39
Mod
32
Mod
24
Mod
 
 
14
Bloom Done, Ida
Petal Fall, Gala, Honeycrisp
55
0
 
 
52
Low
45
Low
37
Low
 
 
15
Bloom Done, Paulas 
Petal Fall, Gala, Honey
64
0
 
 
76
Low
70
Mod
61
Mod
 
 
16
 Petal Fall, Goldens
68
1.15
 
 
 
 
130
Infection
121
Infection
 1st symptoms
Predicted, 5-31
 
17
 Petal Fall, Rome
Bloom End, Gingergold, Braeburn,
Jons, Jonagold, Fuji
71
1.04
 
 
 
 
215
Infection
206
Infection
 1st symptoms
Predicted, 5-31
 
18
 
59
.13
 
 
 
 
 
 
206
High
 
 
19
Bloom Done, Goldens
57
.01
 
 
 
 
 
 
206
High
 
 
20
 
62
0
 
 
 
 
 
 
243
High
.
 
21
 Bloom Done, Rome
66
0
 
 
 
 
 
 
279
High
 
 
22
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
23
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
24
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
25