Detroit Metropolitan Area 2020 Economic Outlook

 The Detroit-Warren-Dearborn metropolitan area made up of Wayne, Oakland, Macomb, Livingston, St. Clair and Lapeer counties, is expected to see modest economic growth through 2020. But like the state, it will largely miss employment growth. The 2019 metropolitan-level gross domestic product growth will be limited but healthy at 2.9 percent annually. This will moderate some in 2020 to 2.0 percent, largely due to weakness in manufacturing sectors. Wage and salary growth is expected to be tepid through 2020 dropping as low as 1.3 percent growth, or well below inflation. However, other components of income will contribute to overall personal income bringing it up to 2.0 percent growth in 2020.

Overall, Detroit’s employment projection for 2020 is for a slight decrease to no change. If we had to give a number, we would project a drop of 6,400 jobs overall, or about a decline of 0.3 percent. Like the rest of the state (and the nation), the goods producing sectors show the greatest amount of weakness in 2020 with projected loses of about 9,200 jobs. New service jobs expected to go online are not sufficient to make up for the loss. In fact, relative to the state, service job growth for the Detroit metropolitan area is expected to lag – adding only 0.2 percent growth in 2020. The effect on unemployment is a modest increase from 4.4 percent unemployment in 2019 to 4.8 in 2020.

Updated December 6, 2019

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