Guest commentary: Why weather records are breaking across the country
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EmailThere is a strong probability that climate change is influencing certain extreme weather events. And we should expect more of it as the climate changes.
(Reprinted from Detroit Free Press)
By Joyce E. Penner and David L. Skole
Wednesday will be the first official day of summer, but not the first day of scorching temperatures. The forecast for Tuesday, the last day of spring, called for a high of 97 degrees, which would break a record set 48 years ago. On Memorial Day, Detroit’s high temperature hit 95 degrees — the hottest May 28th temperature in the city’s 138 years of record-keeping.
In March, more than 15,000 warm weather records across our country were broken. Michigan had its warmest March in recorded history as locals swapped winter coats for shorts and enjoyed 80-degree afternoons. Meanwhile, other areas of the country endured tornadoes tossing multi-ton trailers around like children’s toys. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration received 223 reports of tornadoes when 80 tornadoes is the March norm. Ohio and parts of the Southeast faced a string of tornadoes in early March that caused $1.5 billion worth of damage.
There is a strong probability that climate change is influencing certain extreme weather events. And we should expect more of it as the climate changes.
As leading scientists, that’s what we know. We’re not alone. Insurance industry leaders think so, too, and they have been meeting with U.S. Senators to call for action.
The extreme weather events with huge costs thus far in 2012 unfortunately reflect a growing recent trend. In 2008, 2010 and 2011, there were 100-year or 500-year floods in Iowa, Missouri and Wisconsin. In April 2011, the nation suffered through 875 tornadoes; the previous one-month record was 542 tornadoes.
As the climate changes, the normal cycles of our Earth become altered. Whether from human-related or natural causes, the shifts in temperature associated with the changing climate can change the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere, and this can lead to major changes in the probability for extreme weather. Some evidence can be found by looking at the ratio of extreme highs and lows in U.S. weather over the last 50 years.
In the 1950s, our country had about the same number of extreme heat events as it did extreme cold. That is, the probability of an extraordinarily cold January day was as likely as an excessively hot July day. By the 2000s, however, we were twice as likely to see an extreme high in our weather report as we were an extreme low.
Scientific models are starting to suggest that disasters like the 2010 Russian heat wave, which resulted in the loss of 50,000 human lives and billions of dollars of wheat crops, were likely related to human-induced climate change. Recent studies have also shown that the salinity and acidity of our oceans are changing, indicating major changes in the Earth’s hydrologic cycle. As we understand more about the processes affecting climate, our understanding of the Earth’s complex cycles become more nuanced. The evidence is rapidly mounting that we are living in a changing world where climate change is affecting our weather, sometimes in extreme ways.
Fortunately, there are steps we can take to adapt to and mitigate climate change.
We can grow America’s investments in renewable energy, powering more homes with wind and solar energy. We can advance energy efficiency policies and use better appliances and equipment that avoid wasting energy and save us money on utility bills. We can manufacture and drive more fuel efficient cars that save us money at the gas pump, lessen America’s dependence on foreign oil, and reduce greenhouse gas pollution. We can invest in building a Midwest high-speed passenger rail system that improves mobility, reduces pollution, creates jobs and pulls together the regional economy. We can improve infrastructure that makes trains and other public transit work better and bicycle riding a safer option for commuters.
We can use one of the most pressing issues of our lives as an opportunity to foster open and frank dialogue about the ways for people to work together to ensure the Earth’s productivity now and for generations to come.
Joyce E. Penner is associate chair for atmospheric science at the University of Michigan. David L. Skole is professor of forestry at Michigan State University. Professors Penner and Skole represent scientists from each Big Ten university.
