Characterizing Climatic Socio-Environmental Tipping Points in Coastal Communities: A Conceptual Framework for Research and Practice
July 1, 2024 - Shortridge, J. E.; Bukvic, A.; Mitchell, M.; Goldstein, J.; Allen, T.
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Abstract: The concept of climate tipping points in socio-environmental systems is increasingly being used to describe nonlinear climate change impacts and encourage social transformations in response to climate change. However, the processes that lead to these tipping points and their impacts are highly complex and deeply uncertain. This is due to numerous interacting environmental and societal system components, constant system evolution, and uncertainty in the relationships between events and their consequences. In the face of this complexity and uncertainty, this research presents a conceptual framework that describes systemic processes that could lead to tipping points socio-environmental systems, with a focus on coastal communities facing sea level rise. Within this context, we propose an organizational framework for system description that consists of elements, state variables, links, internal processes, and exogenous influences. This framework is then used to describe three mechanisms by which socio-environmental tipping could occur: feedback processes, cascading linkages, and nonlinear relationships. We presented this conceptual framework to an expert panel of coastal practitioners and found that it has potential to characterize the effects of secondary climatic impacts that are rarely the focus of coastal risk analyses. Finally, we identify salient areas for further research that can build upon the proposed conceptual framework to inform practical efforts that support climate adaptation and resilience.In the face of climate change, there is growing concern that incremental adaptation measures will be insufficient in addressing climate risks. Socio-environmental tipping points describe situations where a small change or pressure results in a societal system moving into a fundamentally different state. This concept is increasingly used to describe risks from climate change and the meaningful societal changes necessary to reduce these risks. However, understanding how climatic tipping points might unfold in socio-environmental systems is very challenging because these systems are highly complex, with human, built, and environmental components that interact in unpredictable ways. This research presents a framework for describing tipping points in socio-environmental systems, and uses this descriptive framework to identify three tipping point mechanisms. These are feedback processes, cascading linkages, and nonlinear relationships. A panel of coastal practitioners reviewed the framework and found that it could capture the multiple potential tipping points that they have found in their work. By developing a common way of describing climatic tipping points in socio-environmental systems, this framework can support comparative studies across different locations and the development of computational models for exploring the impact of tipping points and potential interventions.The study presents a conceptual framework of climate-related tipping points in socio-environmental systems It identifies and describe three tipping mechanisms: feedback processes, cascading linkages, and nonlinear relationships An expert panel of coastal practitioners validated the framework and provided multiple examples of tipping points in practice
Type of Publication: Article
