National natural science fund facilitating high-quality development of Earth System Models in China
January 1, 2024 - Liu, Zhe; Dai, Yongjiu
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EmailJournal or Book Title: CHINESE SCIENCE BULLETIN-CHINESE
Abstract: Earth System Models (ESMs) are essential tools for quantitatively depicting and predicting the evolution of various components and their interactions of the Earth system, including integrating human activities with the natural environment. These models seek to advance novel theories using leading-edge technologies. As the cornerstone of Earth Science, ESMs offer an indispensable, integrated platform and research tool that enhances the discipline, cultivating a profound comprehension and nuanced strategies to address global environmental challenges. To bolster ESMs' development in China, this contribution delves into a brief review of the historical development of ESMs. Finally, we discuss various funding initiatives by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) dedicated to ESMs and conclude with pertinent policy suggestions.ESMs have experienced three pivotal phases. The first phase, spanning the 1940s to the 1950s, was marked by groundbreaking work in atmospheric modeling and the advent of numerical weather prediction. The second phase, from the 1970s to 1990s, is known as the physical climate system model stage, with significant advancements in model components of the atmosphere, ocean, land, and cryosphere. Since the millennium, ESMs have reached the third phase-The Earth System Model stage, which is characterized by the integration of biogeochemical cycles such as the carbon cycle, the refinement of spatial resolution to a global kilometer-scale and the incorporation of new elements like the near-space and lithosphere. Throughout all three stages, the success of ESMs has been contingent upon efficient and coordinated innovation.The emerging development trends of ESMs are further highlighted. Firstly, the increasing integration of human and social processes drives ESMs to better represent the dynamic interplay between the natural environment and human civilization. Secondly, as space exploration technologies continue to advance, planetary system models will become a new branch. Thirdly, innovations in algorithms and computational power, particularly in the realms of artificial intelligence and quantum computing, are poised to accelerate the evolution of ESMs, enhancing their capabilities to unprecedented levels.The NSFC is instrumental in nurturing organized innovation within the realm of ESMs in China. Key initiatives by the NSFC include introducing the application codes of D0511 Atmospheric Model Development and D0512 Earth System Model Development, launching a special fund for key theories and core technologies for coupling natural-social systems at multiple scales, and setting the priority funding area of Earth System Numerical Prediction in the Meteorological Joint Fund. Moreover, the NSFC has facilitated the establishment of a consortium of programs centered around Earthlab, China's first Earth system numerical simulation facility. By dissecting the underlying logic and management ideas behind these actions, this study elucidated the NSFC's forward-looking, strategic, and systematic funding layout for ESMs.Finally, policy suggestions for bolstering the expansion of ESMs in China have been deliberated: Fostering interdisciplinary collaboration and nurturing groundbreaking innovation; unifying scientific and technological workforces to enhance resource sharing; adhering to the principles of talent development to refine selection metrics; and prioritizing international cooperation with an emphasis on fostering mutually beneficial and win-win scenarios.
Type of Publication: Article