Simulating emerging coastal tourism vulnerabilities: an agent-based modelling approach
November 1, 2020 - Student, Jillian; Kramer, Mark R.; Steinmann, Patrick
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EmailJournal or Book Title: ANNALS OF TOURISM RESEARCH
DOI:10.1016/j.annals.2020.103034
Abstract: Coastal tourism destinations face a range of climate-related changes. Prevailing challenges include understanding emerging changes and future uncertainties. A dynamic vulnerability approach is a promising way to analyse emerging socio-ecological vulnerabilities. This research presents an innovative coupling of the human-environment system in the agent-based model Coasting, and is applied to Curacao's coastal tourism. We observe how operator numbers and environmental attractiveness, proxies for socio-ecological vulnerabilities, change over time. Global sensitivity analysis highlights the main interacting factors behind socio-ecological vulnerabilities. Scenario discovery explores the main drivers contributing to undesirable vulnerabilities. The model's findings provide key insights on which factors tourism destinations need to focus on to prevent socio-ecological vulnerabilities.
Type of Publication: Article
