The Office of Management and Budget redefined the Lansing-East Lansing Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) in 2018. The current MSA definition includes Ingham, Eaton and Clinton Counties. The new definition of the Lansing-East Lansing-Owosso Combined Statistical Area (CSA) now includes Shiawassee County. We maintain the original MSA definition in this forecast.
Our Lansing MSA projection calls for just under a one percent growth in total employment in the three-county region. The Lansing MSA exhibits significant sectoral trends in employment growth. For example, employment in leisure and hospitality sectors have seen recent sharp declines which are expected to continue through 2019. Alternatively, the mining, logging and construction sector has exhibited significant overall growth – with projections for continued growth. While challenges in the auto sector will place pressure on durable goods manufacturing employment, nondurable goods manufacturing is likely to make up much of the difference. Finally, and consistent with our state forecast, the model anticipates unemployment to decline in 2019, but we feel this projection is overly optimistic.
Lansing personal income is expected to pull back from past trends, but come in at a healthy 3.1 percent growth. For Lansing, wage growth is seen to outpace personal income growth with 3.2 percent gains.
Updated December 19, 2018