The Potential Economic Impact of Guinea-Race Sorghum Hybrids in Mali: A Comparison of Research and Development Paradigms

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October 1, 2016 - Author: Alpha Kergna, Melinda Smale, Amidou Assima, Abdoulaye Diallo, Eva Weltzien, and Fred Rattunde

Alpha Kergna, Melinda Smale, Amidou Assima, Abdoulaye Diallo, Eva Weltzien, and Fred Rattunde. 2016. The Potential Economic Impact of Guinea-Race Sorghum Hybrids in Mali: A Comparison of Research and Development Paradigms. Feed the Future Innovation Lab for Food Security Policy Research Paper 23 - EN. East Lansing: Michigan State University

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Alpha Kergna, Melinda Smale, Amidou Assima, Abdoulaye Diallo, Eva Weltzien et Fred Rattunde. 2016. L’impact économique potentiel des variétés hybrides de race guinéenne au Mali: Une comparaison des paradigmes de recherche et développement. Feed the Future Innovation Lab for Food Security Policy Research Paper 23 - FR. East Lansing: Michigan State University

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
In this study, we assess the potential economic impact of the first, Guinea-race sorghum hybrids produced and diffused using the new research and development paradigm (PPB-F), comparing it to what would have been achieved through the earlier approach (PPB-S). To incorporate risk into our analysis, we augment the economic surplus model by applying Monte Carlo sampling to simulate distributions of model parameters. Thus, rather than provide a single estimate of the total economic surplus, net present value, and internal rate of return, the analysis generates a range of estimated values, their minima, maxima, means and modes. We then explore which factors most influence variation in economic returns; these lend insights for policy.

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Tags: food security group, fsg research paper, fsp research paper, innovation lab for food security policy, input, input use and market development, mali, sorghum

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