Towards an Integrated Framework for Climate Change Impact Assessments for International Market Syste

Co-Principal Investigators

Non-AFRE Co-Principle Investigators: (PI) Julie Winkler, (other Co-Pi’s) Pang-Ning Tan, Jeffrey Andresen, J. Black, Shiyuan Zhong, Amy Iezzoni, and Nikki Rothwell (MSU). Lu Zhi (Shan Shui Conservation Center, Beijing, China)

This international collaborative research project is supported by the National Science, Dynamics of Coupled Natural and Human Systems (CNH) Program.  It is implemented by the Geography Department at MSU with collaboration from other MSU Departments and units.  It will develop and evaluate an integrated framework for climate change assessments for international market systems that simultaneously and explicitly considers spatial and temporal dynamics of natural and human systems at multiple scales from the local to the global and from the individual to an industry. The investigators will pay special emphasis to industries with long-term investments, with much of their attention given to studies of the tart cherry industry in the central U.S. and central Europe. They will combine dynamic modeling of temporally evolving system components with static modeling for those components where dynamic modeling is not feasible.

A chain of linked models will assess the potential impact of a changing climate on a market system for each of a series of future time slices; succeeding time slices will be connected by projections in adaptation options, economic factors such as consumer preferences, and regional development patterns. The model chain will include a hybrid approach to the downscaling of future climate projections, a production model, an individual-level decision-making model, and an international trade model.

 Numerous technical and implementation challenges will be investigated and addressed using an example industry involving a specialized perennial agricultural commodity as proof of concept. In addition to the technical advances made possible by the proposed framework, this research will contribute to the development and growth of a diverse pool of undergraduate and graduate students with expertise in international, interdisciplinary research and will provide informal education to the general public on potential impacts of climate change.

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