Briefing Paper on Corn Ethanol Use in Michigan: Short-run and Long-run IssuesDOWNLOAD FILE
December 31, 2006 - Author: Corn Ethanol Working Group H Christopher Peterson, Roy Black, Jim Hilker, William A Knudson, John Ferris
The rapid emergence of corn ethanol production capacity in Michigan has stimulated considerable discussion of the state’s ability to produce corn for energy, livestock and export to other states and provinces. Effective utilization of the distillers grains with solubles (DGS) byproduct of ethanol production is also in question. This briefing paper is designed to provide a rapid assessment of what is known and projected for ethanol production in the state. It draws upon readily available public and private analyses of the production and use of corn, ethanol, and DGS. The estimates of specific uses of corn for feed in Michigan and for export, as well as the potential use of DGS, are less precise than the estimates of corn acreage and yield and are not from public sources.
Two timeframes are examined—a short-run view through 2007/08 (Exhibit 1) and a longer-run view through 2016 (Exhibit 2). The short term view is based on statistics for the past three crop years and projections for the coming crop year, with 5 ethanol plants, under three corn supply scenarios. The
longer-run view begins with a baseline of one ethanol plant, and then explores an intermediate term with 7 plants, and a longer term with 10 plants, based on existing and proposed plant capacities.