The latest economic outlook generated Steven Miller's MSU Economic Forecast Model shows potential problems for Michigan's economy in 2019.
Twice a year, Steven R. Miller, AFRE assistant professor and director of the Center for Economics Analysis, conducts the MSU Economic Forecast Model, which provides the only comprehensive and publicly accessible economic forecast for the State of Michigan without a fee — and the only economic forecast for the Lansing-East Lansing Metropolitan Statistical Area. The model also provides comprehensive economic forecasts of the Detroit-Warren-Dearborn Metropolitan Statistical Area.
The MSU Economic Forecast Model is the brainchild of Miller, upon realizing that Michigan consumers and policy makers have limited access to state and local economic projections for planning. Miller has been developing and operating state and local economic forecast models for over 14 years and across multiple states.
“There are a few similar models generating information in the state, but none that are readily available to those who need the information,” said Miller. “Our goal is to provide local and statewide stakeholders with scientific analysis on trends that could effect their businesses and critical decisions.”
The model is a 437-equation system of statistically estimated equations with industry granularity for employment, wages, personal income and gross state product. The model is run twice a year in December and June.
The most recent outlook for 2019 calls for slowing employment growth, with Michigan’s automobile manufacturing sector leading job losses. Many risks to outlook exists, including whether the Trump Administration can reach amicable trade agreements with China and other U.S. trading partners, whether GM will follow through on their planned closing of two Michigan plants, and how consumers, businesses, and the government will respond to mounting public and private debt.
Visit https://www.canr.msu.edu/cea/economic-forecast/ for the latest forecast and for commentary on the state of Michigan’s economy.